Start the next case with the firm’s precedent.
Connect prior assumptions, committee debate, decisions, and outcomes. Recover what the firm knew at the time, then judge which lessons apply—and where the new case differs.
Project Rowan · 2023–2025
The case, as the firm saw it then.
Thesis · May 2023
Retention would carry the base case.
The original case relied on durable renewals. Broad-based customer expansion was an upside assumption, not the foundation of the plan.
The original record
May 2023 · customer quality
Read source excerpt
Underwrite the retained customer base. Treat expansion beyond the largest accounts as an assumption to test.
For the next case
Recover what was underwritten, separately from what was hoped for.
A relevant pattern is not the same company.Move through the record. Keep belief, decision, and outcome distinct.
The firm’s precedent
Keep what the firm believed at the time.
Precedent is more than an old memo. Its value lies in the original assumption, the debate around it, the decision made, and what followed.
- 01
Recover the original thesis.
Return to the assumption and evidence available when the investment was considered, rather than reconstructing the case from its outcome.
- 02
Connect decisions and outcomes.
Keep committee debate and investment decisions linked to the results that tested them, including where an assumption held or broke.
- 03
Compare relevant precedent.
Bring a prior case into the current review with the material differences visible. A familiar pattern need not mean the same conclusion.
Review stays with your team
Precedent informs. Your team decides.
The earlier case keeps its context. Your team judges whether the comparison is useful, which lessons travel, and where the new investment needs different reasoning.
A session around your work
Start with a lesson worth carrying forward.
Choose a recurring underwriting question. We’ll explore how prior assumptions, decisions, and outcomes can inform the next case.
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